Dashboard forecasting: how to predict project hours and budget burn rate
Project overruns rarely surprise anyone in retrospect. The warning signs were there: burn rate creeping up, scope expanding, estimates proving optimistic. But without systematic forecasting, these signals get lost in day-to-day operations. At BetterQA, we added dashboard forecasting to BetterFlow because we kept discovering project issues too late to course-correct.
What dashboard forecasting shows
BetterFlow's dashboard provides several forecasting views:
Budget burn rate: Hours consumed vs. hours budgeted, projected to project end date
Completion forecast: Based on current velocity, when will the project budget be exhausted?
Team capacity projection: Given current allocations and leave schedules, what is available capacity over the next quarter?
Seasonal patterns: Historical patterns showing productivity variations throughout the year
Burn rate analysis
The simplest forecast is linear burn rate: if a project has 1000 hours budgeted, 400 hours consumed, and 2 months remaining, is the team on track?
Linear analysis says: 400/1000 = 40% consumed. If 40% of time has elapsed, the project is on track.
But linear analysis misses context:
- Is velocity increasing or decreasing?
- Are upcoming phases more or less intensive?
- What is the historical accuracy of this team's estimates?
BetterFlow's forecasting incorporates these factors, using historical data to weight projections.
Velocity-based forecasting
Rather than assuming constant burn rate, velocity-based forecasting uses recent trends:
If the last 4 weeks averaged 50 hours/week on this project, and 400 hours remain, the project will complete in 8 weeks. If only 6 weeks remain, the project is at risk.
Velocity is calculated per-project and per-team, accounting for the specific pace of each effort rather than organizational averages.
Capacity planning integration
Forecasting must account for team availability:
- Scheduled PTO reduces available hours
- Holidays reduce working days
- Team members splitting across projects reduce project-specific capacity
- Planned staffing changes (additions or departures) affect future capacity
BetterFlow integrates leave management and project assignment data to forecast realistic capacity, not just theoretical hours.
Early warning indicators
The dashboard highlights projects at risk:
Burn rate exceeding plan: Projects consuming hours faster than budgeted
Scope creep signals: New work categories appearing that were not in original plans
Estimation accuracy: Comparing actual vs. estimated hours by task type to identify systematic underestimation
Resource concentration: Projects where most hours come from one person (bus factor risk)
Historical pattern recognition
Organizations have patterns they may not recognize:
Seasonal slowdowns: December and August often show reduced productivity due to holidays and vacations
Project phase patterns: Early phases often run faster than estimated; late phases often run slower
Team patterns: Some teams consistently deliver ahead of schedule; others consistently overrun
BetterFlow surfaces these patterns so forecasts can account for them. If your December productivity is historically 70% of normal, December forecasts should not assume 100%.
Acting on forecasts
Forecasts are only valuable if they inform decisions:
- Staffing adjustments: Add resources before projects fall behind, not after
- Scope discussions: If forecasts show overrun, negotiate scope reduction early
- Client communication: Proactive updates about delays build trust
- Budget requests: Forecasts provide data for additional budget requests
The goal is not prediction accuracy but decision quality. A forecast that is 80% accurate but acted upon beats a forecast that is 95% accurate but ignored.
About BetterFlow
Built by BetterQA, a software testing company. BetterFlow's dashboard forecasting turns historical timesheet data into actionable predictions, helping managers spot project risks before they become crises.
Sources & References
- PMI - Earned Value Management
- Harvard Business Review - Forecasting Best Practices
- McKinsey - Project Budgeting
Published by BetterQA, an ISO 27001 and ISO 9001 certified company with 8+ years of experience in software quality assurance. According to research by McKinsey, data-driven project management improves team productivity by up to 25%. Last updated on .
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